That's So French

As the cease-fire continues to hold between Israel and Hezbollah, a United Nations peacekeeping force is forming in southern Lebanon which will comprise of some 15,000 troops. France, a leading proponent of the UN-brokered cease-fire, announced on Friday that they would be sending another 200 troops, doubling its current contingent to a whopping 400 troops. That's so French.

Meanwhile, click here to see how you can make your own French flag.

A Lose/Lose Situation

The recent conflict involving Israel and Hezbollah (the state-within-a-state) is over for now. Both sides claim victory. But both sides lost.

Israel lost because they bowed to international pressure. 157 Israelis - mostly civilians -were killed. Imagine if Hezbollah had made more precise attacks! It became clear that Israel was out to seperate Hezbollah from the world and neutralize them. They nearly did that. Yet stopped short. In the end, Hezbollah still remains a threat to the north of Israel. And remember how this crisis started? With the kidnapping of two Israeli soldiers? They have not been returned, and are seldom mentioned anymore.

Hezbollah lost simply because - despite their claims - they did not win. They did not invade Israel. Nor did they inflict the same kind of damage or casualties as was inflicted upon Lebanon. Depending on which side you believe, either 530 or just 80 Hezbollah fighters were killed (I tend to believe the higher Israeli figure as the Muslim press cannot be trusted). Hezbollah also exposed its sponsors, Iran and Syria, with unwanted scrutiny from the global community. And even today, many Lebanese are questioning why Hezbollah has been allowed to operate in Lebanon, just as they have questioned Syrian influence on Lebanese politics. How can Hezbollah possibly say they won? Did they win Palestinian freedom anywhere? Did they even return a single refugee to Palestine? Granted they inflicted some damage, but they certainly did not break the capability of the Israeli military nor break the will and the spirit of the Israeli people. In fact, the Israelis are probably stronger for it. And Israel remains a major and formidable threat to Hezbollah, with the ability to attack with impunity at any time they choose. So Hezbollah won? I don't think so.

Only the United Nations itself can claim a marginal victory in that they somehow were able to broker a cease-fire at all. But Hezbollah has already vowed they will not disarm themselves, and the Lebanese Army certainly won't disarm them, either.

The European Union lost because they never acknowledged Hezbollah as a terrorist organization before this crisis. And they still don't recognize them as such, even though Hezbollah provoked this attack.

The United States lost because they never convinced the rest of the world that Hezbollah was even a viable threat to the security of the Middle East.

Syria has always been a loser, and this conflict didn't help their image any.

The events surrounding this crisis have also lifted high the veil that has covered the Islamo-facist regime of Iran; even a lot of Arab nations are growing nervous over a Persian-dominated Middle East.

But the biggest loser in all this is Lebanon, a country caught in the cross-fire. Estimates place civilian casualties there at 1130 dead, 3600 wounded, and one million displaced. Tens of thousands of homes and businesses are destroyed. When a state-within-a-state is targeted, there is much collateral damage upon the state. It's not unlike treating an agressive cancer - you risk losing the patient.

The environmental cost has been high, too. Israeli ordinance includes depleted uranium warheads, the very nature of which constitute a health risk. There is an oil spill in the Mediterranean resulting from an Israeli airstrike on a power station. It covers an extensive area along the shores of Lebanon and Syria, and is drifting toward Cyprus and Turket. If not contained soon, it will rival the Exxon-Valdez spill of 1989. And in Israel, firefighters are busy with forest fires in the Naftali mountain range which were sparked by Hezbollah rockets.

Thankfully the truce is holding. But I don't hold much faith in it.

Keep watch, my brethren. Be vigilant.

Escalation/De-escalation?

Please forgive me for my brief hiatus from blogging; it's been busy around here.

Well, the crisis continues between Israel and Hezbollah. As I type this, air raid sirens are once again sounding in northern Israel. And about 1000 IDF troops are actually pulling out of Lebanon. Meanwhile, rumors are flying that there may be a ceasefire in the works starting as early as tomorrow.

Looking at the past week's news, though, you wouldn't think that the war was cooling down. Israel continues to strike against strategic targets, including transportion routes in and out of Beirut. Hezbollah has intensified its rocket attacks against Israel, and are managing to reach deeper into Israel. Attacks on both sides are getting deadlier as the body count mounts.

One of the more distressing events occured when Isreal shot down an explosive-laden drone flying offshore. Its most likely target was Tel Aviv.

Israeli television was reporting yesterday that amongst some Hezbollah guerillas killed in action, there were also members of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. Hmmm.

Meanwhile the Israeli Air Force is getting pretty good at finding rocket launch sites. Whenever a rocket is launched, it leaves a tell-tale sign of the launch site - which can immediately be attacked with an air-to-surface missile. Good for Israel. Bad for Hezbollah.

A cease-fire would be a wonderful thing. But I just don't see how it's realistic at this time. Hezbollah is not a sovereign entity that can be negotiated with, and any UN-brokered agreement would not be binding upon them. Hezbollah is the party that started this conflict, and they've not made any indication that they care to stop. Even with a cease-fire in place, I wouldn't be surprised to see them lobbing rockets into Israel anyway.

Sending Lebanese troops to the south of the country sounds like a solution, but it's not. Where have they been all of these years? Shouldn't they have been there already? It's their country, isn't it? Fact is, Hezbollah is part of the political structure of Lebanon, where they even hold seats in Parliament. The Lebanese Army trying to disarm Hezbollah would amount to nothing less than civil war. And from what we've seen from Hezbollah, I doubt the Lebanese Army is a match for them.

My solution? I would have Israel and Lebanon agree to link up along a line running well to the north of the Lebanon-Israel border, essentially allowing Israel to occupy southern Lebanon and neutralize Hezbollah. As the IDF mops up in southern Lebanon, a substantial international force of peacekeepers who are truly sincere about keeping the peace (not the French!) would be brought in. Then the IDF could withdraw back to Israel. Meanwhile, the Lebanese Army would be bolstered and eventually be allowed to re-occupy their own territory. And of course, there would be absolutely zero-tolerance for Hezbollah to operate anywhere in southern Lebanon.

Meanwhile, Israel is prepared to escalate this crisis as more troops have massed along the border. Their planned offensive is on hold - for now.

Keep watch, brethren. Be vigilant.