Escalation/De-escalation?

Please forgive me for my brief hiatus from blogging; it's been busy around here.

Well, the crisis continues between Israel and Hezbollah. As I type this, air raid sirens are once again sounding in northern Israel. And about 1000 IDF troops are actually pulling out of Lebanon. Meanwhile, rumors are flying that there may be a ceasefire in the works starting as early as tomorrow.

Looking at the past week's news, though, you wouldn't think that the war was cooling down. Israel continues to strike against strategic targets, including transportion routes in and out of Beirut. Hezbollah has intensified its rocket attacks against Israel, and are managing to reach deeper into Israel. Attacks on both sides are getting deadlier as the body count mounts.

One of the more distressing events occured when Isreal shot down an explosive-laden drone flying offshore. Its most likely target was Tel Aviv.

Israeli television was reporting yesterday that amongst some Hezbollah guerillas killed in action, there were also members of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. Hmmm.

Meanwhile the Israeli Air Force is getting pretty good at finding rocket launch sites. Whenever a rocket is launched, it leaves a tell-tale sign of the launch site - which can immediately be attacked with an air-to-surface missile. Good for Israel. Bad for Hezbollah.

A cease-fire would be a wonderful thing. But I just don't see how it's realistic at this time. Hezbollah is not a sovereign entity that can be negotiated with, and any UN-brokered agreement would not be binding upon them. Hezbollah is the party that started this conflict, and they've not made any indication that they care to stop. Even with a cease-fire in place, I wouldn't be surprised to see them lobbing rockets into Israel anyway.

Sending Lebanese troops to the south of the country sounds like a solution, but it's not. Where have they been all of these years? Shouldn't they have been there already? It's their country, isn't it? Fact is, Hezbollah is part of the political structure of Lebanon, where they even hold seats in Parliament. The Lebanese Army trying to disarm Hezbollah would amount to nothing less than civil war. And from what we've seen from Hezbollah, I doubt the Lebanese Army is a match for them.

My solution? I would have Israel and Lebanon agree to link up along a line running well to the north of the Lebanon-Israel border, essentially allowing Israel to occupy southern Lebanon and neutralize Hezbollah. As the IDF mops up in southern Lebanon, a substantial international force of peacekeepers who are truly sincere about keeping the peace (not the French!) would be brought in. Then the IDF could withdraw back to Israel. Meanwhile, the Lebanese Army would be bolstered and eventually be allowed to re-occupy their own territory. And of course, there would be absolutely zero-tolerance for Hezbollah to operate anywhere in southern Lebanon.

Meanwhile, Israel is prepared to escalate this crisis as more troops have massed along the border. Their planned offensive is on hold - for now.

Keep watch, brethren. Be vigilant.