Sunday, July 16, 2006

Escalation III

Here are some of the events transpiring the last few days in and around Israel:
  • Israel continues to hit strategic targets inside Lebanon, including Hezbollah offices, weapons-storage facilities, airports, bridges, and roads. There are considerably more attacks within the Beirut area itself. Israeli strikes are also occuring deeper into Lebanon.
  • The Lebanese ports of Tripoli, Sidon, and Tyre are blocked by Israeli warships.
  • Hezbollah leader Sheik Hassan Nasrallah announced that they were prepared for "open war" against Israel. "You wanted an open war, you will have an open war," Nasrallah said. By the way, Nasrallah's home in southern Beirut was destroyed the same day.
  • A missile struck an Israeli warship offshore, killing four Israeli soldiers.
  • Hundreds of rockets have struck inside northern Israel, as well as deeper into Israel; there are concerns that they may soon hit Tel Aviv. Although denying that they launched the rocket that hit Haifa on Thursday, Hezbollah claimed resposibility for the rocket that struck a train depot in Haifa today and killed eight Israelis. Israel pounded the southern suburbs of Beirut in response.
  • IDF troops have re-entered northern Gaza.
  • Israeli warplanes have again bombed the Palestinian Foreign Ministry in Gaza.

As the ordinance and accusations continue to fly over both sides of the border, it is apparent that things will likely get worse before they get better. As one side ratchets up the conflict, the other side also ratchets up in response/retalation. Sadly enough, civilian casualties are beginning mount, especially in Lebanon where the Israeli response is especially harsh.

One reason this is not considered an actual war yet is because Israel is the only sovereign nation supposedly involved. It's just a matter of semantics. Iran and Syria claim they're not involved, but I'm not buying it by virtue that they're sure sticking their necks out for the Palestinians. Somebody is helping them - it doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure that out. A couple hundred rockets lobbed into Israel should be plenty of evidence.

For a mere terrorist group/political party (by virtue of holding seats in the Lebanese Parliament), Hezbollah is throwing a hell of a lot of firepower at Israel. Somebody has to be helping them. Israel claims that these rockets are Iranian-made (of course Iran denies that claim). If the IDF could manage to capture a Hezbollah weapons cache, they may just be able to prove that claim. The claim could also be proven if one of these rockets turns out to be a dud and lands more-or-less intact (I don't know if that's even possible). In fact the Jerusalem Posts claims that an Iranian military source told an Arab newspaper that Iran provided 11,500 rockets to Hezbollah. Hello!

Consider also the missile that hit the Israeli warship. Hezbollah's rockets were characterized in the media as a "point-and-shoot" weapon where the launching party is happy if it happens to land on a nice target. The hit on that ship is evidence enough that the weapon was considerably more sophisticated - along with the training required to launch and successfully hit its target. That's not rocket science, either (and Israel has confirmed it was a missile hit). One reason the ship was hit was because they weren't expecting a missile launch and didn't have their missile defenses up.

As I stated in my previous post, Israel's mission in Lebanon appears to be to isolate Hezbollah from the rest of the world. I think the IDF in so many words has since made that clear and has been demonstrated through their tactics. Nothing in, nothing out. Except, of course, the imminent airlifts of foreign civilians out of Lebanon.

I also find it interesting that Syria has lifted its requirements to present a visa to cross its border (at least the border with Lebanon). That's to help facilitate those leaving Lebanon. What a clever way to get militants and soldiers across the border into Lebanon!

It will be interesting to see the reaction if/when Iran and/or Syria are proven to be directly involved in this conflict (like rocket parts labeled in Farsi or some actual troops found in Lebanon). It's hard to blubber with egg on your face.

Meanwhile, keep watch, my brethren. Be vigilant.

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